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The slogan could be the BJP’s ace to consolidate the OBC and the Dalit vote in their favour in Maharashtra to defeat the formidable challenge from the Maha Vikas Aghadi
‘Batenge toh Katenge’ (If we are divided, we will lose) — this clarion call given first by Uttar Pradesh Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath to the Hindu community during the Haryana elections was backed recently by Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Over the weekend, the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) endorsed it as well, making it the new go-to political slogan for BJP.
This slogan one could hear post-Diwali from election stages of the BJP’s top campaigners in the all-important election of Maharashtra. This is a state where consolidating the sizeable OBC and Dalit vote is crucial for the BJP-led alliance of Mahayuti (MY) to defeat the formidable challenge from the Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA).
Consider this — Maharashtra and Haryana are among the two states where BJP suffered heavy reverses in the recent Lok Sabha elections. While BJP’s tally in Haryana came down from 10 seats to five since 2019, it came down sharply in Maharashtra from 23 seats to just nine. In both states, the reason was similar — the Dalit vote moved away.
The Congress campaign over ‘Constitution will be changed’ and ‘reservation will be scrapped’ hurt the BJP in both states, apart from Uttar Pradesh. BJP now is trying hard to impress upon the Dalit voters that Congress built a ‘false bogey’ to divide Hindu votes. The BJP feels Dalits moved back to it in Haryana assembly elections as a result.
In Maharashtra, the setback was also because of a complete Muslim consolidation behind the MVA in the Lok Sabha elections. BJP feels the assembly election in Maharashtra will be quite different. One, it is confident that Dalit voters, especially the Ambedkarite voters which are about 10-11 per cent in the state, will move back to the BJP this time.
There has been a concerted campaign by the BJP for this in the state, including the numerous visits of NDA’s Buddhist face, Kiren Rijiju, to Maharashtra. The RSS is also helping the BJP in Maharashtra for ground connect — Mohan Bhagwat in his Dussehra address asked RSS workers to reach out to the Dalits and “forge friendships with them”.
The BJP also feels that the Muslim consolidation for MVA would not be of the same level as four months ago; and that Muslims would not vote overwhelmingly this time for Uddhav Thackeray’s candidates.
OBC consolidation
The MY is led by a Maratha chief minister in Eknath Shinde and so far, the BJP has said it is fighting the election under his leadership. The issue of the CM’s chair, meanwhile, will be settled once the elections are over. The strategy is not to further antagonise the Maratha voter which is unhappy with BJP for not delivering on the Maratha reservation issue. The Marathas had considerably hurt the MY in the Lok Sabha polls.
However, the flip side of the same is that OBCs (at 52 per cent voters) could side with the BJP again, the traditional voter of the party. In this mission, the ‘Batenge Toh Katenge’ slogan could be the BJP’s ace to consolidate the OBC and the Dalit vote in their favour.
Along with the popular women scheme under which over two crore women in the state have received Rs 7,500 in their bank accounts so far, the BJP feels it could be home come November 23. If that happens, the new slogan would have had a big role to play in it.