The battle lines have been drawn in Maharashtra as soon as the Election Commission announced the date of polling for the state which had a tumultuous political landscape over the last few years.
While the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led Mahayuti alliance and the Congress-affiliated Maha Vikas Aghadi remain locked in a fierce contest for the 288-seat Assembly elections on November 20, the political winds are blowing in different directions across the state’s six distinct regions: Vidarbha, Marathwada, Konkan, North Maharashtra, Western Maharashtra, and Mumbai.
The Mahayuti alliance comprises the BJP, Shiv Sena (Eknath Shinde faction), Nationalist Congress Party (Ajit Pawar faction), Prahar Janshakti Party, Rashtriya Samaj Paksha, Republican Party of India (Athawale), and Jan Suraj Shakti.
The Maha Vikas Aghadi consists of the Congress, Shiv Sena (Uddhav Thackeray faction), Nationalist Congress Party – Sharadchandra Pawar (Sharad Pawar faction), Samajwadi Party, Peasants and Workers Party of India, and Communist Party of India (Marxist).
Mumbai (36 seats): A Shift in Power?
Once a BJP-Shiv Sena bastion, Mumbai’s political landscape appears to be shifting. The recent Lok Sabha elections hinted at this change, with the Maha Vikas Aghadi gaining ground. Currently, the Congress-led alliance holds an edge in 21 seats, leaving the Mahayuti trailing with 15. The Shiv Sena split significantly impacts this region, and the upcoming elections will reveal whether the Mahavikas Aghadi can capitalize on this shift.
Konkan (39 seats): Sena vs. Sena
The Konkan region, a coastal strip stretching along western Maharashtra, witnessed the undivided Shiv Sena’s dominance in the 2019 assembly elections. However, the party’s split has created a ‘Sena vs. Sena’ battleground. With Eknath Shinde, a prominent Konkan leader, aligning with the BJP, the Mahayuti appears to have gained an advantage. However, persistent issues like unemployment and displacement could sway voters.
Vidarbha (62 seats): BJP Navigates Rebellious Waters
Home to prominent BJP leaders like Deputy Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Union Minister Nitin Gadkari, Vidarbha presents a unique challenge for the saffron party. While historically a BJP stronghold, internal rebellion and seat-sharing conflicts within the Mahayuti alliance could impact their performance.
The Congress, energized by recent successes and Nana Patole’s leadership, sees an opportunity to capitalize on this discontent, particularly amongst the OBC communities. The Shiv Sena split further complicates the political landscape, with both factions vying for influence.
Western Maharashtra (58 seats): Pawar’s Bastion Faces Challenges
Known for its agricultural prowess and industrial development, Western Maharashtra has long been a Congress-NCP stronghold. The BJP, seeking to make inroads, has aligned with the Ajit Pawar faction, setting the stage for a fierce ‘Pawar vs. Pawar’ battle.
The Lok Sabha election results, where the BJP faced setbacks, highlight the challenges the Mahayuti may face in this region. Furthermore, the emergence of Sambhajiraje Chhatrapati’s Maharashtra Swarajya Paksh adds another layer of complexity to the political landscape.
North Maharashtra (47 seats): Testing Loyalties
The Shiv Sena-NCP split reverberates strongly in North Maharashtra, particularly in Jalgaon, Nashik, and Ahmednagar. While this region favoured the BJP-Shiv Sena in 2019, the recent Lok Sabha elections saw a swing towards Sharad Pawar’s NCP.
The BJP faces an uphill battle in placating disgruntled farmers and tribal communities. All eyes are on Chhagan Bhujbal of the Ajit Pawar faction of the NCP, who aims to leverage his OBC support base, and Eknath Khadse, who has returned to the NCP-Sharad Pawar fold after his fallout with the BJP.
Marathwada (46 seats): Caste Politics and Development Woes
Marathwada, a region grappling with drought and underdevelopment, remains a hotbed of caste politics. The demand for Maratha reservation continues to be a contentious issue in this region. While the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance found success here in 2019, the current political realignments, particularly the NCP-Shiv Sena split, could impact voting patterns.
The All India Majlis-e-Ittehadul Muslimeen and the Vanchit Bahujan Aaghadi led by Prakash Ambedkar also aim to make their presence felt, adding to the intricate political tapestry of the region.