Kamala Harris has recently overtaken Donald Trump in six different polling averages, signaling a major shift in the race as the 2024 election draws closer. The Democratic nominee as of Saturday surged in three key battleground states: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, where voter sentiment has dramatically swung in her favour. These states, which were pivotal in the 2020 election, now appear to be leaning towards Harris, giving her a crucial edge.
Kamala Harris leads Trump in multiple polling average
Six national aggregate polls have placed Kamala Harris at the forefront in the presidential race, with margins ranging from 0.5 to 2.5 percentage points, reports Newsweek. The Vice President turned presidential hopeful officially entered the election on July 21, following President Joe Biden‘s endorsement and his decision to step back as a candidate. Earlier polls had shown Harris outperforming Biden in some matchups against Trump.
Right now, RealClearPolitics shows that Harris is just beating Trump by a super slim edge, with a 0.5 point lead—47.6 percent to 47.1 percent based on the six polls analysed.
What are the polls where Harris is leading against Trump
The New York Times surveys show Harris just a bit ahead at 48 percent, while former President Trump is right behind her at 47 percent, meaning Harris has a 1-point edge. But things change when we add in independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In that case, the difference between Harris and Trump grows to 2 points, with Harris at 45 percent, Trump at 43 percent, and Kennedy getting 5 percent of the vote.
Looking at the big picture, Harris is in the lead over Trump by 1.6 percentage points, but both of them are falling behind when you count in the votes from third-party candidates in Race to the WH’s aggregate. FiveThirtyEight and 270toWin both say Harris is up by 2 percentage points (45.6 percent to Trump’s 43.5 percent) and (47.5 percent of the vote to Trump 45.5 percent) and Kennedy is pulling in about 5% of the votes.
Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania rally behind Harris
The Democratic nominee has made waves with her strategic choice of Tim Walz, the Minnesota governor, as her vice-presidential pick. Walz, a well-regarded figure in American politics, contrasts sharply with Donald Trump’s more controversial choice of JD Vance as his running mate. A poll from The New York Times and Siena College shows that if the election happened now, 50% of the people who say they’ll vote in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania would pick Harris, but 46% in each state would go for Trump.
Nate Silver’s Silver Bulletin poll gives Harris a 2.5-point lead over Trump, while The Hill shows her trailing by 0.2 points.
