NHC tracking tropical wave in central Atlantic; could become Ernesto

August 10, 2024

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As a weakening Debby brought rain and flooding to the Northeast and New England, forecasters already have their sights on another potential tropical storm in the Atlantic.

The tropical wave is currently located in the south-central Atlantic Ocean between the Cabo Verde Islands off the coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles in the Caribbean Sea, according to the National Hurricane Center. It is expected to become a tropical depression by the early to middle part of next week as the system nears the Lesser Antilles, wrote NHC forecaster Brad Reinhart.

Over the next seven days, as its west-northwestward movement brings it to the Greater Antilles, the system has an 80% chance of developing, he wrote. If the system develops into a tropical storm, it will be called Ernesto.

The wave is one of many tropical waves of low pressure that move from the Indian Ocean across Africa and across the Atlantic Ocean each year, Accuweather meteorologists note.

In the next few days, this one could become the next tropical storm or hurricane targeting the U.S. East Coast. “Into Sunday, this system is unlikely to organize into a tropical depression, but as it approaches the Leeward Islands early next week, it could be a vastly different story,” according toAccuWeather meteorologist Alyssa Glenny.

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Where is Debby?

As it became a post-tropical cyclone, Debby continued to bring heavy rainfall to the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast U.S., causing flash flooding in northern Pennsylvania and southern New York state. Heavy rainfall and isolated to scattered flooding was expected in New England, with conditions improving Saturday, the Center said.

This comes after Debby dropped at least a foot of rain across more than a dozen locations in the Southeast, resulting in widespread flooding from Florida to North Carolina.